The undecided:
Where the underdog could will win
With many voters
undecided and i suspect many staying at home for the second round, it then
becomes a differential in voter turnout. This is heavily in Le Pen favour.
A motivated
unhappy is very powerful, especially if they know voting will help the cause.
The previlaged in France will be the "unmotivated". Where there are
no reprecusions to not vote, unlike Singapore and Australia, France has no such
law/rule.
The last
presidential election only 80% participating.
A motivated 40%
can beat an unmotivated 60% simply via voter turnout diffentiential. Privileged
few are known to be the ones who do not turn up.
_________________________________
Agruements
against my thesis:
I can on the
lookout for reasons why my thesis will fail. I have evaluated 3 very solid
counteraguments.
So here are my
critical responses at to why Le Pen cannot win the second round.
Q: look at her
father, he lost badly in the second round
A: Yes her father
was hated, and his reputation as the devil caused him to lose a landslide
victory in his presidential run.
But if you think
Marine Le-Pen kicked her father out of the National Front and did not have her
father advising her, you have to be crazy. She cleaned up the image after taking
control and i am sure all of it is policitcally motivated. To think otherwise
is Naive.
Q: Why would
French people want Frexit? They are essentially what Europe stands for
A: Look at the last 2 referedums in France, 1992
and 2005. Neither were large in margin though both were calling for increased
intergration into the EU. They did not then, what about now?
Even if Le Pen
wins, she still has to call for a vote, and that may or may not be successful
Q: But look at
the media and what they are saying
A: The media and
the polls are based around certain assumptions.
Once again look
back at the old Referradums, people in Paris were generally in favour of
increase intergration. Much like how Trump cannot win San Francisco or New
York, there places are consider progressive and pro-establishment.
A city does not
speak for the country.
The people who
are woefully unhappy are based outside of Paris in the smaller towns.
Q: Her policies
are ridiculous and anti-economic
A: Have you seen
Melanchon policies? They are absolutely nuts.
But he has surged
in the polls. Simply because people are unhappy. They want change. It preceeds
logic.
It is why i will
increase my risk is Melanchon supports Le Pen in the second round or vice
versa.
Conclusion
This is not a
binary event, hence why i have a decision tree based on probable outcomees.
Trading plan around event: EURUSD only
Current position = 2% risked of my total account
If Le Pen gets into the second round = + 0.5% risk
If Macron gets into the second round = +0% risk
if Fillon gets into the second round = + 0.5% risk
if Le Pen and Melenchon fail to make second round = Exit all
if Mélenchon backs Le Pen in the second round = +1%
if Mélenchon backs another party = reduce risk to 1.0%
Is it right or
good for the world? Le Pen, Trump and Brexit proved something. Globalisation
benefits the few. Xenophobia is a very real thing. Fear and terrorism certainly
is a thing as well.
Globalisation. If you are a
Marxist then no, this is a bad thing, if you follow Adam Smith's thinking
then no, it is great.
My hope for a
better future is that there will be a EU 2.0, one with integrated government
and policies instead of stagnant and separate identities. If not the EU cannot
compete with China and America. This was the whole point of the single market.
But alas, the
greater good sacrificed for temporal gains was never in our nature.
We are traders,
we can only oberserve the market, being stressed angry over the world does not
help us. Whether we like it or not, the outcome is the same.
We cannot work
hard, hustle and expect better trading results, it is why most fail, just pick
your battles wisely.
Stay safe
everyone!